- What is risk?
Risk is a situation that expectations are not realized. When you expect some change on the price of an equity, it is called volatility and that change may be positive or negative. However, risk occurs when change is constantly negative and more negative than expected measure. In such a case you may need to liquidate your investment. Volatility helps us to understand what is the expected measure for a specific investment and what is the boundary to quit.
- What does expected return mean?
Expected return is an annualized average of a security's daily returns. It does not tell how much return the security would gain at the end of a given investment cycle. It helps us to compare equities and investment opportunities in the market.
- What does dynamic volatility mean?
Volatility is how much a security's returns deviate from their average based on historical data. Volatility is one of the most commonly used notion for risk measurement. If we want to see how much risk we would be exposed to when we invest in certain investment opportunities, we refer to volatility. It does not tell how much loss encountered in a yearly basis. The loss may be more or less than expected. It is only for comparison purpose of financial instruments such as equities, commodities, bonds, funds etc. Dynamic volatility measures a security's volatility based on its last 2 years daily basis data and it renews the calculation everday. So dynamic volatility is not constant, it is slightly changing.
- What are securities and financial instruments?
Any financial instrument traded in capital markets is subject to being a security. Stocks, bonds, funds, etfs, cryptocurrencies and commodities all of them are well known securities. ETFs and funds are mixed with several equities sometimes more than a thousand. For instance, Voo is an ETF based on stocks of s&p500 index. Voo's price is affected by price movements of these 500 stocks in s&p500 index.
- How can I compare securities by using riskwarner search tool?
Investment theory is based on two significant percentages; mean of a time series data for a security's returns and standard deviation of a time series data for a security's returns. Investors want to make rational choices once they decide to invest. They would like to take least risk as they want to yield possibly most highest return. So, there are thousands of different investment opportunities in the market however which ones would maximize our return for a given risk. Making a rational choice from the investment opportunities cluster, which includes more than 8000 security, is a problem. Riskwarner helps you find it out. When two security's expected returns are same and their dynamic volatilities are different, the one which has lower volatility would be a rational choice. When you search a specific security by using riskwarner search tool, it automatically gives you 5 securities whose expected returns to that specific security are similar and dynamic volatilities to that are lower. However it does not tell you the best optimized investment alternatives neither provide a portfolio optimizing your risks and potential returns. If your specific security's expected return is -15% and dynamic volatility is 85%, our algorithm still finds you securities whose expected returns are approximately -15% but dynamic volatilities are quite lower than 85% or about 85% based on most available investment choice in the market at that moment. Unless you upgrade your account, our algorithm works to find you securities with similar expected return and lower dynamic volatility to the one you search in the tool.